The Hon. Kerrry Sibraa AO,
The Shell Issue 1:
Welcome to The Shell, John Wells
What can Labor do to hold onto Federal Government? Julie Sibraa
Who will control the Senate post 2013? Kerry Sibraa AO
What must Tony Abbott and the Coalition do to win Government? John Wells
Battleground Western Sydney,
The Wild Wild West, Dr Ron Edwards
How Barack Obama's digital strategy changed political campaigning and organising forever, Benjamin Haslem
Keeping the Tigers in Rozelle: Balmain Leagues Club's fight for survival, Benjamin Haslem
Delivering the Sea-Eagle's 21st-century community sporting facility to the Northern Beaches, John Wells
The infrastructure challenge, Julie Sibraa
Digital giving: digital delivers NFPs a culture of inclusion... and giving, Alexandra Mayhew
UN Young Professionals, Alexandra Mayhew
Asia Society: building an understanding of Asia in Australia
An enduring business enterprise... and a great friendship, The Hon. Warwick Smith AO
The Wells Haslem Team
The Shell Issue 1
Who will control the senate post 2013?
When Chinese Premier Chou En Lai was reportedly asked what he thought was the historic impact of the French Revolution, he considered the question for a moment then replied: “It's too soon to tell’.
It’s certainly too early to speculate on the likely Senate composition following the next federal election, but some fairly obvious points stand out.
Kevin Rudd’s comprehensive victory in 2007 was also reflected in the Senate result, with a remarkably strong result for the non-Coalition parties. For example in Tasmania the result was 3 Labor, 2 Liberal and 1 Green. Overall the result was 16 Labor, 16 Coalition, 3 Green and 1 Independent Senator elected. The terms of these Senators elected in 2007 expire on 30 June 2014. It is highly unlikely, based on current polling that these results would be repeated.
At a glance it appears Labor could lose up to two to three Senators with the Coalition picking up two or three. Whilst the Greens’ vote has slipped recently, it is still possible for them to gain a Senator in a State like NSW where the 2007 election delivered three Senators each to Labor and the Coalition, a slightly unusual outcome based on previous elections.
The problem for the Coalition if they win Government is there are six Green Senators whose terms do not expire until 30 June 2017, which even with an improved result on 2007 will make it extremely difficult for the Coalition to control the Senate.